Florida will keep growing – But at what rate?

Economists estimating Florida’s demographics and growth have now lowered their numbers and predict by April 2027 a growth of 1.29%- a drop from their earlier 1.41%. 

As death tolls outpace births and people moving from other states slows down, growth in Florida will decline modestly because of those statistics. However, with an estimated 22.25 million residents as of April 2022, Florida will continue to see a population increase, equivalent to a city the size of Orlando each year.  

 Economists have used a report known as the Demographic Estimating Conference, revising the state’s growth rate to 1.29% from the original rate of 1.41% predicted in December of 2021.  

 Amy Baker, coordinator of the Legislature’s Office of Economic and Demographics Research, said the state of Florida is “just halfway” through the retirement period of baby boomers, and the younger the generation, the longer they are waiting to have children. Baker emphasized, “natural increase is expected to remain negative throughout the forecast horizon as deaths continue to outpace births.” Also, migration from other states is slowing, after the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic subside.   

 New estimates put Florida on an annual pace of 294,756 net new residents by 2027 compared to December’s numbers of 309,867.